Pens vs. Lighting

We now know who the Pens will play in the playoffs.  The Tampa Bay Lightning are a dynamite team on the power play, and for awhile, they looked like they could be the team to beat in the East.  Since then they've fallen off, and lost their division to the Capitals.  The team has been hot of late, going 7-3-0 in their last 10.  Meanwhile, the Pens without their best player have gone 8-2 in their last 10, so both teams have turned it on at the right time.  Let's see who will win this.

3 Questions for the Pens:

1.  Can they win a playoff series without Sidney Crosby? -  Dan Bylsma has hinted that Crosby won't be back in the first round of the playoffs.  With two steps for Crosby to go through until he is ready to play, it looks unlikely he'll play in this series.  So the offensive load falls on the top 6 forwards of Neal, Letestu, Kovalev, Kunitz, Staal, and Kennedy.  Neal has never been in the NHL playoffs, so he'll need to acclimate to the scene quickly to have success.  Letestu has played in the playoffs, but that was in a third line role when Staal went out for 4 games last year.  The rest are solid playoff performers, with Kovalev being the most prominent.  He is a near point per game player and needs to show that in this year's playoffs after a rough regular season.

2.  Will Fleury bounce back from an off playoffs last year? -  I think Fleury has answered that question with his play this year, but the playoffs are a completely different animal.  That being said, Fleury will have a better post season this year. He's going to have to if the Pens want to have a chance at advancing without Sidney Crosby.

3.  Will the power play not suck? -  If the last three games have been any indication, the power play is going to be okay.  The Pens will have to score to put themselves in the position to win against the Lightning.  The Pens couldn't score on the PP when they needed to against Montreal and that's why they lost.  The power play will have to be a constant threat or the Pens could exit early.

3 Questions for the Lightning?

1.  Is the lack of playoff experience going to hurt Steven Stamkos? - This will be Stamkos's first post season tour in the NHL.  He has struggled of late as well, only 2 points in his last 5.  At the time Sid went down with his concussion, Stamkos had 31 goals and everyone expected him to take the Rocket Richard again.  42 games later, Stamkos has 45 goals.  Not exactly the pace of the "best" goal scorer in the league.  Stamkos will have to get back to his early season pace if the Lightning want to play well.

2.  Is Roloson too old? -  Dwayne Roloson is 41 years old and will be the Lightning's playoff goaltender.  He's played in 54 games this year, 34 of those with the Lightning.  In fact, he's appeared in 34 of a possible 42 games since being acquired by the Lightning.  That is way too much.  So add the fact that he is one of the oldest goaltenders in the league and has had a heavy workload could spell disaster in the playoffs.

3.  Is their defense good enough? - The Lightning give up the most goals out of any team in the East that is playoff bound (only Detroit gives up more and it's only 1 goal).  Although they did go out and acquire Eric Brewer before the trade deadline, they're only +7 in their goal difference.  The Pens would do right by taking it right to that shaky defense corps.

Individual Match-up to Watch:

Zybnek Michalek vs. Martin St. Louis - Let's be honest, St. Louis is Tampa's best player.  Stamkos is nothing without St. Louis setting him up, and this make him their most dangerous player.  Zybnek Michalek is arguably the Pens best defensemen in the defensive zone.  It only makes sense to put someone like him against a dangerous threat like St. Louis.  With Pittsburgh having home ice, this could be the way the Pens win the series.

Overall Match-up to Watch:

Tampa's Power Play vs. Pittsburgh's Penalty Kill - Strength against strength.  The Lightning were #6 in the league in power play efficiency, while Pittsburgh boasts the #1 penalty kill.  The series might come down to the better special teams play from these teams.  But for the Pens, they want to minimize their penalties to keep this unit off the ice, making it a blessing in disguise that Matt Cooke was suspended for the first round of the playoffs.

Winner:

Pittsburgh in 6.  Everyone of the Penguin's important players have been here before.  They know what it takes.  Tampa does have guys who have won Cups, but Stamkos and Hedman have never been to the dance before.  That might be enough for the Pens to take the series.